A dividend or divider? Fertility Transitions and Economic inequality in sub-Saharan Africa
Gorrety Parmu1, Parfait M. Eloundou-Enyegue2
1International Program, Population Reference Bureau (PRB), 2Cornell University

Across African Union member states, many national development strategies include the goal of achieving economic growth that is both rapid and equitable across their populations. Fertility transitions alter the age structure of national populations in ways that can boost savings, investments, and economic growth, a phenomenon well documented in the literature on the demographic dividend. Fertility transitions can generate a ‘dividend’ but also operate as a ‘divider.’ Between 2000 to 2020, sub–Saharan Africa region’s average birth rate fell from 5.8 to 4.6 births per woman, with concurrent transformations in age structure. At the same time, GDP per capita grew by 36%, from about $1220 to over $1660. Assessments in vanguard countries link as much as 40% of this growth to national changes in age structure. The extent to which demographic and economic trajectories in the region have influenced economic inequality must be better understood.